Luanda: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommended on Thursday in Luanda that oil-exporting countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, such as Angola, prioritize prudence in managing extraordinary revenues resulting from high crude oil prices on the international market. This advice was given by Antonio David, head of the IMF's department for Africa, during the presentation of the financial organization's report on 'Regional Economic Outlook'.
According to Angola Press News Agency, the IMF suggested that Angola and other countries in the region use surplus resources to rebuild economic policy and strengthen foreign reserves. In the face of uncertainty, the IMF proposed striking a balance between responding to shocks and maintaining reforms, particularly in monetary policy, by maintaining restrictive rates in countries with high inflation to anchor expectations.
Another recommendation relates to fiscal policy: maintaining fiscal consolidation to ensure debt sustainability, particularly in Portuguese-speaking African countries (PALOP), where adjustment efforts are still necessary. The IMF also recommended greater social protection for importing countries with limited fiscal capacity, suggesting that spending should be redirected towards more efficient and targeted social support for vulnerable populations.
David warned of a 'pessimistic scenario' if the conflict in the Middle East continues until 2027, which could reduce the region's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 0.6% and cause inflation to rise by over 2 percentage points compared to baseline forecasts. The IMF noted that, despite volatility, oil-exporting countries such as Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have maintained access to international capital markets, successfully issuing Eurobonds totaling around 9.6 billion US dollars in early 2026.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects an economic growth rate of around 4.3% for the sub-Saharan Africa region in 2026. This represents a slight downward revision of 0.3 percentage points compared to the growth rate of 4.5% in 2025. This is due to the impact of external shocks and geopolitical conflicts. The Regional Economic Outlook report also indicated a slowdown, contradicting the January forecasts. The region had previously performed positively at 4.5%, a level not seen for over a decade.
In Angola's case, the continuity of structural reforms, particularly the reduction of fuel subsidies, was a positive factor. The report highlights that conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are obscuring short-term prospects in the international context. One of the main concerns is the increase in oil and fertilizer prices, which could raise energy costs and worsen food insecurity in the region.
'The increase in fertilizer prices has a delayed effect. We estimate that the impact on food prices will be felt over a period of 12 months, so the true social impact may still be seen in the near future,' warned Antonio David. The presentation of the Report on Regional Economic Prospects was attended by the Minister of Planning, Victor Hugo Guilherme, and the IMF Assistant Director for Africa, Amador Sy. Representatives from the IMF in Angola and the African Development Bank (AfDB) were also present, as well as members of the Board of Directors of various banking and non-banking financial institutions.
